Stock Market: Kepler Cheuvreux Cuts Rating and Target Price for TISG

As reported by Teleborsa, the investment bank downgraded The Italian Sea Group’s stock from “Buy” to “Reduce”, cutting the target price from €6.90 to €3.70 per share, implying a potential 23% downside from current levels on the Euronext Milan market.

In addition, shares of the group led by Giovanni Costantino have already fallen by more than 50% over the past 12 months.

According to the analysts, the downgrade reflects “another quarter — the sixth in a row — without major orders,” a trend that could have medium-term consequences.

Kepler points out that “the lack of long-term orders will impact fiscal year 2025 and, given the average delivery times of yacht projects, also 2026,” anticipating a possible decline in volumes and margins “even in the event of a recovery in demand.”

A reversal of this trend, the note adds, is “unlikely before 2027.”

Kepler estimates that Q3 2025 will once again show limited new orders — roughly €25 million, mainly from the Lamborghini yacht project — and that the total order backlog may fall to €310 million, a 42% year-on-year decrease.

The absence of significant new orders is expected to have a direct impact on quarterly results, with revenues projected to decline by around 25% and EBITDA down by more than 40%.

Analysts also highlight a further increase in net debt, expected to rise above €80 million (up from €63 million at the end of the first half), as a result of higher work-in-progress levels and the limited effect of customer prepayments on new contracts.

In its analysis, Kepler Cheuvreux states that, with no major new orders announced since the start of the year, “it is now too late to reverse the trend in the short term.”

The bank now expects 2025 revenues of around €320 million (down from the previous forecast of €350–370 million) and EBITDA of about €45 million, a 24% reduction from the earlier projection of €58–63 million.

For 2026, even assuming a return to 2022 order-intake levels, analysts foresee a 10% drop in revenues, while 2027 could represent “the low point” before a possible recovery, provided that new orders exceed €250 million.

Under the new estimates, TISG shares trade at 19x 2026 earnings (P/E) and 12x EV/EBIT, multiples which, according to Kepler, value the company “at a premium not only to Ferretti and Sanlorenzo but also to their respective fair values” — +60% and +15%, respectively.

The note further remarks that, “considering the company’s recent stock-market history, TISG has rarely traded at such levels,” suggesting a possible overvaluation of the stock within the current sector context.

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